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Dernière mise à jour : Mai 2018

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Climate-CAFE

Work Package 4

Modeling of ecological impacts of CC adaptation strategies on biomass production and yield, GHG, soil and water quality under IPCC scenarios by near future (2050) and far future (2100).

WP4 will simulate effects of CC adaptation strategies and conventional cropping practices on plant and water productivity, soil C change, C and N leaching, and GHG emissions under IPCC A2 (medium-high) and B1 (low) emission scenarios, for present (control), near future at 2050 and far future at 2100.

A combination of alternative management practices designed through WP1-WP3 will be evaluated for the potential of ecologically sustainable CC adaptation at the field and extended to a EU regional scales.

STICS model will be adapted to CC by adding new species/cultivars “to the basket of possible crops to be simulated” and the effect of O3 on crop behavior.

DAYCENT and STICS models, calibrated and validated for EU conditions and effects of CC and other global changes (WP3), will be used.

The results of scenario simulations will be analyzed in order to propose a synthesis of CC impacts on EU crops of the Adaptation Pilots.

► WP4.1: Design of simulation plan and Compilation and formatting of model inputs for DAYCENT and STICS under the RECORD platform.

► WP4.2: Adaptation for a wide range of arable, bioenergy and cover crops and evaluation of the prediction quality of STICS for plant production and GHG emissions including new equation for O3 emission.

► WP4.3: Uncertainty analyses of DAYCENT and STICS for plant production and GHG emissions.

► WP4.4: Simulation and Analysis of biophysical effects of CC adaptation strategies using STICS model on RECORD platform and DAYCENT.

WP4 coordinator: Johan Six (ETH Zurich, Switzerland) - Contact:jsix@ethz.ch