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24, chemin de Borde Rouge –Auzeville – CS52627
31326 Castanet Tolosan CEDEX - France

Dernière mise à jour : Mai 2018

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Flagship project 5: Modelling of socioecosystems

Flagship project 5: Model integration and multi-scale modelling in SES

This project has three objectives related to guidance for research within BASC and resolving outstanding issues in developing and applying complex models of SES:

♦ identify all the models available within BASC, their users and people responsible for their development - a non-exhaustive inventory and synthetic presentations are accessible here;

♦ integrate models across disciplines by constructing a conceptual framework for interdisciplinary SES models and developing tools for coupling existing models;

♦ use novel conceptual, mathematical and computational tools to tackle the challenges of multi-scale modelling and study propagation of uncertainty in these models.

Developing dynamically-coupled SES models

One of the objectives of the project is to study SES through coupling of models describing the following components: i) climate, atmosphere and hydrosphere, ii) ecosystem functioning and biodiversity, and iii) economics, public policies and land management and use. Two spatial scales will be favored, due to current work undertaken within BASC labs: i) lanscape scale, covering a few km2, and ii) regional scale, from 10 000 km2 (≈ territorial scale) to several millions km2 (≈ national to subcontinental scales).

Models developed within BASC enable us to address innovative scientific questions which tackle the complexity of socio-ecosystems through the coupling, whether dynamic or not, of models of agricultural and non-agricultural systems functioning (eg. CERES-EGC, STICS, ORCHIDEE, CASTANEA…), climate/atmosphere/hydrosphere models (eg. MDz, MORCE-WRF, INCA, Chimère, Nitroscape...), and economics / public policies / land management and use (eg. AROPAj agroeconomic model, economotric models...). Outputs of these coupled models should help meet ecological, economic and environmental challenges.

Developping a conceptual and methodological framework to deal with complex multi-scale systems

The focus of this activity will be on highly exploratory research using a common methodological framework to quantify the resilience of SES and their components. The goal of this research is not to develop predictive models, but rather to provide a conceptual and theoretical framework that facilitates and stimulates interdisciplinary dialog and sensitises the BASC community to the importance of emergent properties and propagation of uncertainties in complex multi-scale systems.

Two positions were filled to advance this work:

> Post-doctoral researcher « Models coupling » - Marc Stéfanon – 36 months

> Engineer « Streamlining databases for the simulation of systems coupling economy, ecology, biosphere and atmosphere functioning » - Juliette Adrian – 24 months

Coordinators: Pierre-Alain JAYET (Economie Publique), Paul LEADLEY (ESE), Benjamin LOUBET (ECOSYS) & Olivier MARTIN (GQE-Le Moulon)