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Last update: May 2021

Menu Logo Principal Logo ASF Challenge

ASF Challenge

Rules

The challenge will last from "Date to come" 2020 up to "Date to come" 2020.

Registrations closed

Mock data with a similar structure to the in silico data used during The ASF Challenge have been made available here by The Coordinators. Dowload possible up to the 17th of April 2020.

The ASF Challenge will be officially launched soon, by video-conference.

Data

Players will be provided with in silico data at regular time intervals (to be defined soon). We will use a file transfer system. Note that the underlying model that generated the ASF-like epidemic data is expected to be far more complex than any model that could realistically be used in real time to advise policy-makers while an epidemic develops.

Data that will be made available to The Players will consist in the usual information that is being made available for modelling spatio-temporal spread of livestock infectious diseases. It will include information on land use, more or less precise host population characteristics (pig farms and wild boars), spatio-temporal distribution of reported outbreaks, lab results and spatio-temporal distribution of tested wild boar carcases, and a description of the control measures that were implemented to control the epidemic (to be defined more precisely soon).

We will consider a data-poor situation where a “fog of war” has altered the available data (e.g. some farm types might be less likely to be registered, some outbreaks might be reported later than others, etc.).

A detailed documentation explaining data has been made available on this website here.

A detailed documentation explaining rules will be made available as soon as possible, sent to registered players and made available on this website here.

Models' outcomes

On a regular basis, The Players are expected to send to The Coordinators (also using a file transfer system) their predictions of the epidemics over the past and following four weeks, and to prioritize the finite number of intervention strategies in terms of their effectiveness. Be aware that any kind of model can be used: previous modelling challenges have demonstrated that simple statistical models can be more useful in some situations than complex mechanistic models! Players will also be asked to provide before the end of the challenge a full description of the model(s) used per team. This will ensure result transparency.

The Coordinators will analyse and compare model outcomes (given they know the “true epidemic”) and provide all participants a pdf document synthesising The ASF Challenge and the performance of the different modelling teams.

The closing ceremony of The ASF Challenge will be organised as a specific meeting at SVEPM 2021 in Toulouse (France). During this workshop, each team will present its model and the challenges it faced, while The Coordinators will provide an overview of The ASF Challenge and the main lessons learnt.

A special issue will be organised in a high-impact journal (still to be decided) on our collective experience and results obtained!